This article was originally published on LivewireMarkets.com on April 17th, 2025

While the Trump trade war will continue to rattle on, the last week has presented a rare opportunity for investors to take stock before things inevitably ramp up again.

But with uncertainty still thick in the air like London fog, that is much easier said than done.

Here’s how some Australian portfolio managers are seeing things in terms of the where to look and the traps to avoid.

Ignore the tariff trade

Martin Hickson, portfolio manager at 1851 Capital, says it’s something of a mug’s game trying to pick stocks through reacting to Trump’s latest move.

“A lot of brokers have been pushing some of the beneficiaries of tariffs,” says Hickson. “But for us it’s pretty hard to buy into a business on the back of tariffs because they’re changing so frequently.”

He highlights one recent example that has backfired on those that have tried to jump on the bandwagon.

Australian almond producer Select Harvest (ASX: SHV), which Hickson says had been one of the recent broker darlings, was seen as a rare beneficiary of Trump’s trade war.

With its main competitor based in California and now facing huge tariffs on imports into China, the time was ripe for SHV.

It rose from $4.78 to $5.41 in the midst of the wider market selloff as investors jumped on the trade.

But a downgrade to its expected crop yield saw the share price drop 15% on Thursday, wiping out a month of gains.

Select Harvest 3-month chart (Source: Market Index)

So while he’s steering clear of tariff-led trades, Hickson believes the recent selloff has opened the door on a number of ASX stocks.

After selling ZIP (ASX: ZIP) off the back of a weak quarterly update earlier this year, 1851 has now reopened a position in the financial services company after what Hickson considers indiscriminate selling.

ZIP 1-year chart (Source: Market Index)

It’s a similar story with Netwealth (ASX: NWL), which Hickson now believes represents good value after it dropped from a share price of $31 to $22 in recent weeks. It is back in the 1851 portfolio after a long time outside.

“Both those two particular companies are fairly high beta, so they tend to perform stronger when markets are rising,” said Hickson. “They’ve got strong leverage in rising equity markets so they’ve performed well in the last week as the market’s bounced.”

1851 has also increased positions in two defensive stocks that offer a level of immunity on the tariff and macroeconomic front – software firm Hansen (ASX: HSN) and radiology company Integral Diagnostics (ASX: IDX).

Integral Diagnostics 1-year chart (Source: Market Index)

Many moving parts

Bruce Williams, portfolio manager at Elston, agrees the prevailing view in markets is that the worst has passed but the recent chaos, and subsequent bounce, haven’t changed their thinking.

“Our strategy has remained largely unchanged,” said Williams. “We continue to invest in businesses which in our view are solid and can perform over the medium term. We view companies with strong balance sheets, market positions, cash flow generation, and pricing power (amongst other metrics) as being able to weather short-term cyclicality.”

Volatility has created new opportunities, but it remains hard to parse where we go next, says Williams.

Bruce Williams, Elston

“Markets are still a little on edge because the news flow is changing so quickly and creating high levels of uncertainty. As a result, it is difficult to have real conviction about where markets will end up over the next few months,” he said.

“We want to be convinced about the investment thesis before jumping into trades haphazardly.”

While most countries have been given a temporary reprieve from Trump’s tariffs, the clock is still ticking on the 90-day pause and that is something investors need to keep in mind.

“The tariffs that were paused are still due to come into effect in a little under three months’ time, and anything could happen between now and then.”

Throw in the potential for global economic slowdown and caution remains the favour of the day, according to Williams.

“There has been plenty of talk about a possible US recession or stagflation over the medium term and the flow on effects to other nations. This shouldn’t be discounted given the magnitude of the changes, but it is probably too early to know whether this will eventuate or not.”

Big swings in both directions

Market crashes are the true litmus test of a portfolio, according to Schroders CEO and CIO Simon Doyle.

“Active managers have had a hard time, but when the tide goes out what you own matters a lot at a stock level. Getting asset allocation right matters most both in protecting the downside and positioning for future growth opportunities,” Doyle recently wrote to clients.

“While crises are ‘normal’ in that they do occur from time to time, they are never easy to understand or navigate. Markets often lurch from irrationally bullish to irrationally bearish, but turning points are never telegraphed in advance.”

What matters is not getting caught trading the noise, says Doyle.

Simon Doyle, Schroders

Martin Conlon, head of Australian equities at Shroders, says markets have reacted predictably in the face of recent uncertainty, but fleeing to perceived safer bets brings its own risk.

“Selling resources, global cyclicals and tariff losers and rotating aggressively into domestic defensives across consumer staples, telecommunications and healthcare is fairly unsurprising, but not deeply thoughtful,” Conlon told clients.

“Hiding in fully priced banks or defensive stocks at still high multiples merely swaps earnings risk for valuation risk.”

Martin Conlon, Schroders

With nothing to suggest much downside risk to commodities prices in the near-term, he thinks the big miners could represent better value after they were caught in the recent selloff.

“Given businesses such as BHP (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) have proven as durable as any in the Australian investment universe, significant repricing may present an opportunity here, as cyclicals and trade-exposed businesses are being disproportionately impacted by flows in the short-term,” Conlon said.

BHP 1-year chart (Source: Market Index)

Alex Tedder, Schroder’s equities CIO, says the current selloff has undoubtedly created opportunities but “the fluid nature of the situation calls for caution before taking immediate action.”

Established companies with strong fundamentals are also better equipped to weather short-term economic uncertainty and offer outsized growth when things clear up.

“Quality companies that think about long-term planning, supply chain resilience and diversification, and customer relationships ought to be better able to navigate these tariffs and consequential changes in the competitive landscape,” wrote Tedder.

“These types of companies can typically see selling pressure initially at times of heightened uncertainty and market risk but could potentially offer greater risk-adjusted returns as trade dynamics adjust and markets normalise.”